One thing I don't like about our president is his signing of agreements with every jockey he could set his eyes on. I mean, it's been hilarious, so has been politics in our country for quite some time.
But seriously it's hard to say, to which agreement he stick to. And it's even more difficult to believe all these parties and people agreed to his "Mahinda Chinthanaya". But again for politicians here, it's about power than policies. So what's said in the document must not really matter for them as long as they get in the power they wanted.
The problem is that he says "yes" to anybody.
ReplyDeleteHe is well liked because he tries to be everyones friend and never says no.
He will do a deal with anyone to turn his adverseries to his allies.
AS you pointed out, this tends to result in some conflicts.
In other words, a man who lacks a firm sense of what he wants to do. One may say a man without a firm vision or firm principles.
He will promise a lot but may not be able to deliver.
Mahinda is a fraud and fake sinhalese. He is a Malayalee and should go back to India where he belongs. He should have an agreement to drop PERCY from his name. The gift he bears in his name for his family loyalty to the English in betraying the sinhalese people.
ReplyDeleteI think I have told this before the election, Prabath and you were blind at that time,... also I mentioned in Prabath's blog, don't surprise if MR tomorrow says, "I would even like to consider Federal Solution",
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand you cannot blame MR b;cos now he's facing the reality .. it is not easy to say so many things when you don't hav the responsibility, once the responsibility is given it is not that easy...
Good example... while Bandula G in UNP he said it is possible to drop the price of petrol by taking off the tax imposed, but once the responsibility is given how many times the fuel price increased...
This is what politics...WYSINWYG :) everyone bluffing
So what I prefer is someone telling the truth even it is bitter
I am interested to know from anyone:
ReplyDeleteWhat were the most significant aspects about Mahinda Rajapakse that made you think it would have a positive impact on the country compared to Ranil?
Also is there anything he has carried through while in office that has made a positive impact (should be measurable) on the country.
Finally, are there any independent candidates who are very successful in any of the Sri Lankan electorates?
Thanks
I think no politician is perfect. What protects and helps the people in any country is not the politician but the system that is set in place to run the country.
ReplyDeleteThat means, that just and equitable laws should be set in place and we need to be sure all public officials including politicians are held accountable and not have the power to change laws whenever they feel like. A democratic country should be run by public servants while the politicians provide leadership. Even the public servants are bound in duty to serve the people, not the politicians. Freedom of media plays an important role as well. The media and citizens should be able to criticise the government freely and constructively at all times. This helps the people of the country to also make informed decisions as to who they should vote in and also helps to reign in human impulses that all politicians have.
I admit I voted for him, don’t entirely regret doing so but there are certain aspects I don’t agree upon in his rulings.
ReplyDeleteThere were only two options to choose from. Ranil and Mahinda. I felt during Ranil’s peace process, LTTE was strengthening its war power and crippling the government forces. The intelligence units of the government forces were almost wiped out. We lost many a high ranking intelligence officers who provided leadership to many successful intelligence operations.
LTTE never stopped terrorist activities during the peace process and acquired military equipment even through the government channels. More over they brought in and positioned weapons in the government controlled areas. The list goes on and on.
The positive aspect of Ranil’s ruling was that economy was slightly better, but it wasn’t at a convincing boost at least for the little I knew.
I have close relatives in the armed forces in high ranks. So I know at least the war is on the right track now. No matter who claims what, the civilian and government forces casualties are minimal compared to 20+ years of war.
Ok. Thanks for that.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if that was what most people in the south voted Rajapakse for. There is also a theory that the LTTE actually wanted to have Rajapakse in power so they have an excuse to wage a war.
I don't want to go off the topic. Just wondering, since you mentioned the way Ranil tackled the peace process: I saw somewhere that Karuna was supported by Ranil's government. Is this true? And is this considered to be a successful move?
Majority in the south are bound to political parties without any considerations about the policies. They just vote a party and agree to what ever the current leaders say.
ReplyDeleteThe deciding factor is the few hundred thousand floating votes. On LTTE wanting Rajapaksha to be the president, I doubt it, but who knows? Prabaharan has an ill sense of humor.
Karuna left LTTE for some reason, But I’m pretty sure nobody in the south intentionally did any thing to motivate him for that. But later on the UNPers started to shout we did it. And late Balasingham once said it was the over seas traveling that corrupted Karuna’s mind. He blamed Karuna is addicted to the company of Thai prostitutes. But had he really, why would he be fighting here in SL…
Ok off topic, but since L raised this, I think Ranil did a superb job on the economy.
ReplyDeleteThe policies of 2001-2003 PLUS the huge tsunami boost of 2004 (US$40bn flowing through the economy has had a lot of benefit the wider economy although there have been quibbles about whether the intended recipients benefitted) have been responsible for the generally positive economic situation of 2005-2006 for which MR is claiming credit.
The boom was driven by construction and consumption. This was helped by the tax amnesty of 2002 (black money flowed into the legal economy), low interest rates (due to good fiscal management) and the opening up of the market in the North & East. Political stability following the CFA helped investment & tourism. Tourism was also helped by the simplification of visa restrictions on Indians - they are one of the largest markets for tourists now. There are (or were until recently-not sure of situ now)7 flights a day to India all of which were full.
The effects of the Chinthanaya will be felt from 2007 onwards.
People used to say the only thing Ranil did was to create a "feel good factor" That feel good factor is the most important thing of all - it is confidence. Confidence is necessary for investment and investment in turn for growth.
Confidence has just been shattered following the Tiger air raids and the subsequent events has exposed the sheer incompetence of the regime.
On the war front history is against SL. There is only ONE instance of a guerilla war being won by a conventional army - that was the British campaign in Malaya in the 1950's. That was won by a hearts and minds campaign, not by guns.
If you expect SL to rewrite military history, then I think we might be in for a looong wait....
"Karuna left LTTE for some reason, But I’m pretty sure nobody in the south..."
ReplyDeleteno this is where you found it incorrect... yes true that no one predict Karuna would addict to prostitutes and due to that or the another he would leave the LTTE.. but the what happened there was he found out that there are so many out there other than LTTE and he found out that WAR is not the only thing he has to do durin his lifetime... no one need to get the credit for that it's the human nature.. but why that has happened or if you don't like that way to interpret then somehting at least moved it that way is b'cos of MOU... but again one can argue it is intentional or not,... doesn't matter as anti LTTE being we like it. that's what important...
Moreover and surprisingly even JVP and JHU accepted that even though how bad the MOU is,,.. it gave the base of comparisson.. all stats, facts brought up by having the MOU as the base... for ex: it gives the base to JHU or JVP or any other party to say after the MOU LTTE violate this much and SL Army this much... so what's the base? that's the MOU... otherwise related to what they say these stats to World,
Why Kruna still fighting.. now i don't think he's fighting against anything else other than LTTE, b'cos it's very similary to underworld gangs, u will never be able to come out.. you will be killed.. (and personally i don't even have kind heart on Karuna even though now most MR fans thinkin him as a friend, b'cos he's the one who conducted Anuradhapura and Aranthalawa massacre, and who can believe he would ever left the fight - but important fact is his seperation from LTTE)
the discussion has gone into differnt areas but still all that is relevant and worth discussing.
ReplyDeleteAbt these numerous agrrements, one side of it is, its good, bcos the main prblem we have is our politicains and people in general are far too divided, if we are to prgress, we need to come to agreements atleast with regard to some aspects. But the downside is, when u go into agreemnts with parties with different opinions, u tend to loose ur focus. U r not sure what u r supposed to do or what u want to do. So, important thing is to go into agrrements while convincing all of them into same opinions and concepts. MR really hasnt done this. He is a man with a common touch and good friend to people and cunning as well, so he just gets people on board without taking policy side seriously.
I too voted for MR and can be considered a MR supporter on most policies, but with regard to war, his approcah is not precise. Theorotically he is right abt finsihing terrorism first but practicality has a big question. Given his great agreement skills, cant he apply some of those with LTTE? :D thinking of a solution to tamil people now without getting the buy-in of LTTE is a dream. I totally agree with the previos comment abt difficulty of winning a war against a gurilla group. I sugest he consider taking a new look at war and its really not far away from his general polciy of agrreing with everyone. By doing that, most important thing he can do is to win the hearts of the tamil people, if not they r not left with an option but to support LTTE.
Sorry....another question..just wondering...who is MOU?
ReplyDeleteMOU - Memorandum of Understanding - the cease fire agreement
ReplyDeleteSo the economy was good then. I didn't felt much of a difference. May be the Business community did. There should be an effect on the economy in having a war and not. Perhaps few more years on to that would have made me feel it too. Errgg.. Didn’t have the patience.
ReplyDeleteBut I and people around me felt insecure. Perhaps the media had more freedom than now... But then it wasn't only media that carried news of dead intelligence officers and strengthened military power of LTTE in the south and weakening moral and military strength of the government forces. May be the opposition staged them and I fell for that. Damn good political campaigns! They deserve the vote for that…
So was Ranil's plan was to conduct peace talks till more terrorists like Karuna break away from the LTTE? Divide and conquer I believe? Because they still are terrorists. Right? Nice plan though. But I just didn’t have enough guts to believe in that.
Do I feel secure now? No. but I’m used to it I guess. And feels better when the country is on alert of the ongoing war than being ignorant. Does it make much of a difference? I honestly don’t know. May be I’m stupid. Some say I am. And I too feel it once in a while.
Oh - the never won guerrilla wars. Hmm, heard of that frog race? Where the deaf frog won? I have begun to sound so war demanding; have I? Not the least. But still believe that this war could be won.
MR’s rulings? No better that Bush? I never say he’s a good man. Never liked him actually. But I’d give him some time before starting to criticise. Because it at least sounds good on fighting terrorism. I hope I’d live to see Sri Lanka without a war.
Sorry about the strange writing style today, there are other things going on in my life that affects it. Apologies if I offended anybody.
On Karuna breakaway, it was the effect of the CFA. The Tamils are a house divided, by region, caste and creed. In the face of the "common enemy" seen by them as the SL Army they were united. Without the common enemy, the old differences came back.
ReplyDeletePraba is not of high caste, he is from the fisher caste something similar to Karawa but not exactly the same. He does not care higher caste who were the traditional tamil leaders nor do they have too much sympathy for him, however when faced with what they see as a common foe they unite. Theere are also differences between Eastern, Jaffna and Upcountrym as much as there are differences with Kandyan's and low country Sinhalese. How many people will mutter that the Kandyan's are arrogant?
On the war, a Napoleon, a great general said an army marches on its stomach.
Basically, it takes money to fight.
In a nutshell, This is what Sri Lanka's government's income and expenditure looks like:
Tax & non tax revenue Rs.580bn
Expenditure:
Pensions & Salaries of govt servants: Rs.240bn
Defence : Rs.140bn budgeted, (now estimated by Harry Goonetilleke to go upto Rs.200bn)
Interest payments : 169bn
subsidies & transfers (to loss making govt businesses) 127bn
theres' other stuff as well but these are the main things
You can see there is a huge deficit. All the revenue is basically spent on salaries/pensions (no growth will come from this), interest (same as above) and defence (same story)
What about develipment - roads, schools, transport, health etc? Goevt says they will spend and this ges to make huge Budget deficit of Rs.235bn.
Where do they get the money from?
Money printing & borrowing.
The effects of money printing of last year can be seen in the inflation of today. For a lesson in what happens if this is taken too far read:
http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?newsID=317801223&no_view=1&SEARCH_TERM=1
The rest is financed by borrowing locally and from foreign sources plus a smalll component of aid (abt 24bn) Debt is now close to 100% of GDP (anything over 50% is considered high)
And what happens when we borrow? The interest bill keeps shooting up. Remember that as per the original budget, we spend more on interest than on defence.
The collapse of 2000-2001 was triggered under the CBK administartion when things got to this stage (Rupee went from 70 to the $ to 100, interest rates went oto 20% and we had negative growth)
The UNP set things right in 2002-3 by cutting govt expenses, reducing borrowings, and thus reducing interest rates. This set a platform for private investment & job creation. (government has no money to invets in projects - becasue all of it is being eaten up by running expenses and borrowing and spending only digs the hole deeper.
Now we are going back into the same hole and very few people understand the implications.
Basically, in a year or two the government is going to run out of money to fight a war. If they continue, we go bankrupt. Zimbabwe's collapse where 80% of the population is unemployed is the result of about 10-15 years of rampant money printing, which is what governments do when they can no longer borrow.
There is some double counting of figures above. (the way the info is classified makes it hard to reconcile )
ReplyDeleteThe gross deficit 235bn is taken straight from the budget though so that is OK
Read the last page of the subget speech here for the summary, if you go through in detail you can get the breakups.
sorry here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.treasury.gov.lk/FPPFM/fpd/budget.htm
Hello Mahasen,
ReplyDeleteSorry to keep yapping on your blog like this, I hope you don't mind. The following article
"Why is the LTTE dissappointed with Ranil Wickremasinghe?"
on:
http://tamiliana.blogspot.com/2005/11/why-is-ltte-dissappointed-with-ranil.html
may be interesting to your readers.
Below is a key extract (thsi was written before MR was elected President)
"It was mainly due to the LTTE perception that Ranil Wickremasinghe was not playing fair by them.Suspicion created during the 2001 - 2003 period was further reinforced through some actions. Internationally Wickremasinghe and his deputies kept on cultivating the International community. This included visits to India and mention in sections of the Indian press that some understanding had been reached. An Indian connection real or imaginary makes the LTTE paranoid. The tigers were also harbouring a grudge about the Washington summit. It felt the UNP had set them up on that. Wickremasinghe was also harping on Tokyo and Oslo summit declarations. This was his "clever" way of dealing with the South. The onus was put on the International community. But this had a counterproductive effect. The LTTE felt that Wickremasinghe was trying to trap them in protracted talks on exploring federalism by way of Oslo resolution and adhere to benchmarks of democracy, pluralism, human rights etc in terms of Tokyo. The LTTE kept away from Tokyo to avoid such impositions and took up the position that the Tokyo declaration did not bind them. But Wickremasinghe was saying the opposite. Then there was the so called International safety net. It was felt that one reason for the failure of the peace process was excessive internationalisation by the UNP. Wickremasinghe was trying to convince Sinhala voters that concessions to the LTTE was not dangerous because the international factor was there to guarantee security,sovereignity , unity and territorial integrity of the Country. The tigers felt that this was anothr ruse to trap them and confine them to an unproductive, prolonged ceasefire. The international factor was seen as something altering the balance of powerin favour of the State."
Reading this tts hard not to feel sorry for Ranil, hated by the Tigers for not giving enough and accused of trying to trap them and hated by the Singhalese for giving too much and accused of trapping the Singghalese in a Tiger trap!
Not at all... apart from the fact that I'm a bit busy this morning, I'm totally incompetent to argue on the subject... :D
ReplyDeleteI'm totally incompetent to argue on the subject..
ReplyDeleteWell I'm no expert either but most of it can be digested with a bit of common sense and application...:)
:D I have neither...
ReplyDeleteUm...thanks Jack Point for that clinical analysis of divide and rule.
ReplyDeleteOn a personal note, I am probably as naive as Mahasen says he is, I honestly just want people to stop killing and maiming eachother, and people to be treated fairly and justly, regardless of race, caste etc. and have equal opportunity to succeed, be happy and fulfilled in their lives.
You probably think I'm a lunatic from another planet.
Sorry Jackpoint, misread what you wrote.
ReplyDeleteI read a blog praising Ranil for facilitating the division so came with that baggage.
"I honestly just want people to stop killing and maiming eachother, and people to be treated fairly and justly,"
ReplyDeleteI would agree with what you were saying. and I don't think you are a lunatic at all.
I've explained why waging for economically not feasible. I also think that it is not winnable by pure military means as long as the LTTE sticks to guerilla warfare.
In my opinion the CFA process under Ranil was the best opportunity we had for peace.
The foundations of conflicts are economic - hit a man in the breadbasket and he will get angry. Sort it out- which is what the CFA was helping to do, and the problem goes away. 1956 was a watershed because Tamils felt they would be cut out ofthe elite civil service (at that time THE plum job to get - best pay, prestige plus pension) and an university education. Now these are not important because there is plenty of opportunity in the private sector and overseas for employment and education. At that time it was the civil service or the plantation companies, there was only a tiny private sector and no higher education outside the state system.
This is why there has been no trouble in Malaysia since 1969 despite constant grumbling amongst the races there, as long as they can get on with their lives no one will take up armed rebellion. This is also illustrated by the racial trouble in Indonesia following the Asian crisis of 1997. When the rupiah depreciated, savings evaporated and the economy took a jolt, and living standards fell, anger that was below the surface bubbled up in riots againstteh chinese minority who were unfairly blamed for the crisis.
To digress a bit on the quality of the CCS, young people who have never met officers from the old Ceylon Civil Service (and have only dealt with the morons in government service today) will not understand the difference in quality. There are some still around, Ronnie De Mel, Baku Mahadeva, Francis Pietersz, I have been priviledged to meet some of these people and their minds are astounding.
The really sad thing is that not only have the standards of the past been lost, they have now even been forgotten.
Yes, it kind of goes back to the point where I stated the importance of a good public (civil) service system.
ReplyDeleteAll those people yearning for a Singapore in Sri Lanka...I think Singapore has the highest paid public servants in the world, I suppose making it less easy to bribe them.